The SPX and OEX both triggered new ST Trend Model BUY signals as the 5-EMAs crossed above the 20-EMAs. However, the charts are less than impressive. We are seeing new strength on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards with four new PMO BUY signals and now 3 out of 4 indexes carrying ST... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, May 7, 2018 There was plenty of green on Monday, adding to the gains we saw late last week. The only areas of the market that struggled were the defensive consumer staples (XLP, -0.62%) and utilities (XLU, -0.52%). On the flip side, money rotated... READ MORE
All four Scoreboard indexes have PMO BUY signals as of today. The Dow was the laggard, but between Friday's and today's rallies, momentum has shifted enough to push the PMO over its signal line. While we do have a PMO BUY signal, I'm not... READ MORE
* Sell in May does not have a great track record * Technology continues to outpace staples, and that’s bullish * Technology, consumer cyclicals and REITS are well positioned for a rally Sell in May does not have a great track record If there is a seasonal saying that seems ubiquitous at... READ MORE
The discount brokers are showing strength in the broader market with E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) hitting new highs in May. Schwab (SCHW) is breaking out of a small triangle, while TD Ameritrade is bouncing within a bigger triangle. A picture is worth a thousand words and the... READ MORE
* One-Day Breadth Thrust. * SOXX Surges off Support. * Four Semiconductor Stocks to Watch. * A Bollinger Band Squeeze for Akamai. * Five Stocks to Watch: ABT, ACN, ANTM, HCA, SLB. One-Day Breadth Thrust... As noted last Thursday, I was not impressed with the breadth indicators because they showed narrow upside participation. This changed... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, May 4, 2018 For many weeks, we've seen the stock market seemingly ignore great earnings news and retreat. Highly visible companies like Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained initially after blowout earnings, then stumbled after traders attempted to figure out... READ MORE
FEBRUARY MESSAGE SUGGESTED THAT TRIANGULAR FORMATION WAS LIKELY... Everyone is talking about the triangular formation that the stock market has been forming over the last three months. It's important that the situation leading up to that formation be understood, as well as its meaning. My February 21 Market... READ MORE
Throughout 2017 the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) was falling and aiding profits on multinational companies found on the S&P 500. But it was time for the dollar to rise, as evidenced by a surging U.S. 10 year treasury yield ($UST10Y) vs. Germany's 10 year... READ MORE
The SPX whipsawed into a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal, suggesting a short-term rally is up next. Climactic breadth indicators popped on Friday and the VIX penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. When I see these types of readings, I classify them as a buying exhaustion or buying initiation. Below... READ MORE
2018 has been a tough year for stocks with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) basically unchanged (+.08%) for the year. During this journey to unchanged, SPY was up around 7% at its late January high and down around 5% at its February low. The index has since gyrated... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, May 4th at 3:50pm EST STOCKS REBOUND OFF 200-DAY LINES... Chart 1 shows the Dow surging more than 300 points after surviving another test of its 200-day average yesterday. Chart 2... READ MORE
Analysts will tell you that this earnings season has been a great success. In fact, many companies exceeded earnings expectations and were handsomely rewarded by the market. However, there were also plenty of companies that missed earnings expectations and/or provided worse than expected guidance, taking those stocks lower, and... READ MORE
The percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average (200dma) is a breadth indicator that I have depended on for many years. It theoretically oscillates from zero to 100 percent. During bull markets this oscillator spends most of its time between 40% and 85%. During bear markets between 60%... READ MORE
On Thursday the market recovered nicely from an early selloff, and today it had a strong finish. But in the market, volume equals love, and the short volume on Friday was barely a peck on the cheek. On my SPY chart I like to show, in addition to SPY volume,... READ MORE
STOCKS REBOUND OFF 200-DAY LINES... Stocks are ending the week on a strong note. Chart 1 shows the Dow surging more than 300 points after surviving another test of its 200-day average yesterday. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 doing just as well. Both indexes still need to... READ MORE
* S&P 500 Caught in the Crossfire. * SPY Reverses Upswing. * Large-cap Tech Holds up Well. * A Bull Flag in the S&P SmallCap iShares. * Finance and Industrials Weigh. * Healthcare Breakdown Tilts the Balance. * Mind the Gap in Tech-Related ETFs. * Oil Forms Bull Flag. * Gold Forges Lower Low and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, May 3, 2018 The Dow Jones was the only major index to finish in positive territory on Thursday, but it could have been so much worse. In the first 90 minutes of trading, the S&P 500 found itself back below 2600 and within just... READ MORE
Today the SPX joined the Dow with a new PMO SELL signal. If the correction continues much longer, the OEX and NDX will follow suit. Today's action left the SPX with a long tail that tested the purple rising bottoms trendline. This test was successful, but the breakdown... READ MORE
For a very long time equities have been the dominating asset class, stuck at the right-hand side of the Relative Rotation Graph showing six different asset classes. That situation is now changing. Equities (SPY) is still at the right hand (positive) side of the RRG but inside the weakening quadrant,... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 DIP BELOW 200-DAY LINES... Stocks started the day under pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading below its 200-day moving average this morning (before recovering later in the day). A close below the red line would signal that a test of... READ MORE
Market Recap for May 2, 2018 Well, the Fed spoke and Wall Street listened. While there weren't any dire warnings from the Fed about inflation, simply acknowledging that inflation could be returning to its target 2% rate spooked traders for an afternoon. If you were wondering if the... READ MORE
* Breadth Falls Short. * Chart Links and Video. * Looking for a Breadth Thrust. * Still a Correction? * %Above 200-day Indicator Waffles. * The Weight of the Evidence. * Where to Find the Symbols. Breadth Falls Short Enthusiasm among the bulls is waning and this is reflected in the breadth stats over the last two... READ MORE
As noted in the signal table below, the Dow logged a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. I've included the chart below with commentary. The other important news is two new negative divergences showing on the DP indicator charts for the short term and intermediate term! And,... READ MORE
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside * Dollar sympathy relationships * The Aussie Dollar close to a mega signal for itself and commodities Dollar Index breaks to the upside Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index falsely broke to the downside at the very beginning of the year. In the last couple... READ MORE
Market Recap for May 1, 2018 The Dow Jones led the early selling on Tuesday as traders were not impressed with quarterly earnings results from two pharma giants, Pfizer (PFE, -3.31%) and Merck (MRK, -1.51%). Both were down considerably more in the morning session, but rebounded to make... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for Alphabet, also known as Google, but the stock is still in a long-term uptrend and firming near a solid support zone. This could give way to a bounce. First, the stock advanced some 30% and hit a 52-week high in January. Second, the... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX HITS NEW 2018 HIGH... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) rising today to the highest level since last December. It's also climbed back above its 200-day moving average and a falling trendline extending back to the start of 2017. The UUP may now be... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, April 30, 2018 Monday was a "rinse and repeat" session from Friday. We opened higher, sold off for 90 minutes, then consolidated the balance of the day. Since Thursday's close, the NASDAQ has fallen 0.75%, but it seems like much more... READ MORE
All of our monthly charts went "final" today so it is time for a review of the current signals and their implications. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards show BUY signals on all of the four major indexes and that is not changing today. However the DP Scoreboards don't... READ MORE
Visa (V) is leading the stock market as it breaks out of a triangle and records a fresh new high. The stock is now setting its sights on its big rival, Mastercard. The chart below shows Visa in the top window with a steady advance from May to January and... READ MORE
* Throwbacks after Breakouts. * Triangles within Bigger Uptrends. * Stock with Fresh Breakouts. * Corrections within Uptrends. * Two Dozen Strong Uptrends. As noted in Friday's commentary, the performance of stocks in the S&P 500 is split and it a stock picker's market. I am even seeing divisions... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, April 27, 2018 The news heading into Friday couldn't have been much better. The initial reading of Q1 GDP came in stronger than expected at 2.3% vs. 2.0%. We had blowout earnings from key leaders including Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and... READ MORE
Two events happened this week that captured the attention of Wall Street. There was much buzz about both and they seem to be related. On Tuesday the stock market took a big tumble, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling 424 points. The next day the Ten-Year US Treasury Yield ($TNX)... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my... READ MORE
If you didn't catch my interview on Wednesday morning, I joined Tom Bowley and Erin Swenlin on their StockCharts TV show, MarketWatchers LIVE, for a special presentation: "The Two Pillars of Probability Enhancement". I demonstrated the asset allocation strategies and routines I use to reduce risk... READ MORE
* Small-caps Continue to Lead. * IJR Remains with Bullish Continuation Pattern. * Large-cap Techs are Lagging, but Trending Up. * A Divided Market. * The S&P 500 is Stuck in the Middle. * %Above 50-day EMA Struggling. * Countering the Downward Breadth Thrusts. * Healthcare Perks Up. * Biotech ETFs Get Oversold Bounces. * Notes from the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, April 26, 2018 Two familiar areas - technology (XLK, +1.82%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.62%) - saw money rotate their way on Thursday, with especially strong action in both internets ($DJUSNS, +4.11%) and semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +2.35%) leading the technology space. Discretionary stocks... READ MORE
Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND... Stocks are enjoying a rebound today off chart support near 200-day moving average lines. And the Nasdaq is leading it higher. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rising 2% today to outpace other stock indexes. After finding support from just above its 200-day... READ MORE