The US Oil Fund (USO) started the year strong with a surge above 39, but cannot hold above this level as the ETF plunged over 1.5% on Thursday. USO was also turned back in the 39-40 area in November and December. In the indicator window, note that Spot Light... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR IS BETTER FOR US STOCKS... There's good and bad news in the recent rally in the U.S. dollar. First the good news. The past year's dollar rebound appears to be part of a major bottoming formation that started during 2008. Starting with that... READ MORE
The intermarket picture is getting a bit strange. We have already seen the Euro and the stock market decouple in 2012. Over the last three days, we are also seeing a positive correlation between treasuries and stocks. These two were negatively correlated throughout 2011 and I am most concerned with... READ MORE
FLEX Breaks Resistance with Big Volume. LTD Tests Triangle Support. Bollinger Bands Narrow for XRAY. Plus ARO, EMC, GPS, X This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows six intermarket related ETFs. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY), US Oil Fund (USO) and Gold SPDR (GLD) are positively correlated as all show gains in 2012. In an interesting twist, the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES AS RETAIL SALES REPORT LOOMS... Link for todays video. With December retail sales scheduled for tomorrow, retailers are on the hot seat and the Retail SPDR (XRT) is at a make-or-break level. Chart 1 shows XRT surging above 53 with a sharp six day move that began... READ MORE
Stocks surged on the open and then moved into a holding pattern the rest of the day. There was no upside follow through after the opening surge, but stocks held their gains and selling pressure was relatively muted. All sectors were up with materials, finance and industrials leading the way.... READ MORE
A look through the CandleGlance groups shows stocks in the oil equipment and services group moving higher on Tuesday. The image below shows four of the six stocks along with the DJ Oil Equipment & Services Index ($DJUSOI). Most of the stocks are up more than 2% with giant Schlumberger... READ MORE
There is not much change on the 60-minute chart for SPY. The ETF broke flag resistance with a surge late last week and then consolidated the last two days. The breakout is holding with first support marked at 127.20. While a move below this level would also break the... READ MORE
CRR Bounces of 61.80% Retracement. MCK Breaks Triangle Trendline. VRTX Breaks Resistance on High Volume. Plus ASEI, CI, SUSS, TIF This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
Urban Outfitters (URBN) is showing signs of life with a move toward the upper trendline of a triangle consolidation. The stock is currently up three of the last five days, but volume is light. A breakout on surging volume would be bullish. Failure and a break below support at 27... READ MORE
SEMIS LEAD WITH A MOVE ABOVE EARLY DECEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), which is now part of a Market Vectors ETF clan, is showing relative strength in 2012 with a triangle breakout and surge above the early December high. Chart 1 shows SMH surging above 32... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) did not move much after Tuesday's opening gap, but did manage to hold its gains and close near the high for the week. Even though the ETF did not follow through on this gap, the gains are still holding and the... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes have already cleared overhead resistance barriers. The Nasdaq market may be next. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index trying to close above its 200-day moving average. That would be a positive development for it and the rest of the market.... READ MORE
The downside violence in the Gold market as abated for the the time being given the reallocation and repositioning for the New Year. There are many the recent drop is sufficiently of the cathartic-type that will send prices to all-time highs, for we all know that "all the current... READ MORE
High volatility is generally associated with declining equity prices. The inverse is true as a declining level of volatility emboldens the bulls. Therefore, I follow the VIX continually to get a sense of DIRECTION. Clearly, the volatility index (VIX) has been trending lower over the past few months. So it... READ MORE
After reaching an all-time high in August, gold has corrected about -18%, but a recent bounce prompts us to take a closer look to see if the correction could be over. The most encouraging technical evidence is on the weekly chart. Note how the recent low occurred just above the... READ MORE
NEW eBOOK FROM ALEXANDER ELDER AVAILABLE EXCLUSIVELY FOR STOCKCHARTS USERS - Dr. Alexander Elder has just published a new eBook called "To Trade or Not to Trade, A Beginner's Guide". It is now available for instant download in the StockCharts Store for only $8.00. This... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Happy 2012! During his ChartCon 2011 presentation on Intermarket Analysis, John Murphy presented a great chart showing the state of Sam Stovall's Sector Rotation model as of July 2011. Let's take an interactive look at how things have changed since that time. First... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is showing relative strength this year with a triangle breakout and surge above its early December high. On the daily candlestick chart below, QQQ surged in October and then consolidated in November-December. This consolidation started wide in November and then narrowed in December as a... READ MORE
The US Dollar Fund (UUP) broke above its October high and is closing in on a 52-week high this month. With higher highs in September, December and January, the trend here is clearly up. The Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) is not happy though. Notice that this ETF peaked in May... READ MORE
WEEKLY INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH FOR SPY... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) extended its yearend rally with a move above 127.5 this week. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks over the last two and a half years. Focusing on price action since July, we can... READ MORE
The indicator summary got a couple more upgrades this week and remains in positive territory. In particular, the Trend-Structure indicator was upgraded to bullish because the Dow Industrials SPDR, S&P 500 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF broke above their early December highs. These breakouts could be reversed on... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped up on Tuesday morning, formed a falling flag the next 2-3 days and then broke flag resistance with yesterday's surge. The short-term trend has been up since the breakout on December 20th and the bulls remain in charge. Notice how... READ MORE
Regions Financial (RF), which is part of the regional banking group, is showing strength with a break above the November-December highs on surging volume. Prior to today's breakout, the stock consolidated with a seven day pennant. Watch support in the 4-4.20 area for signs of failure. Click... READ MORE
NASDAQ INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes have already cleared overhead resistance barriers. The Nasdaq market may be next. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index trying to close above its 200-day moving average. That would be a positive development for it and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in a short-term uptrend on the 60-minute chart. After a big gap on Tuesday morning, the ETF pulled back to broken resistance, which turned into the first support zone in the 126.50 area. SPY bounced back above 127.5 yesterday afternoon... READ MORE
AA Surges off Support with Big Volume. LUV Consolidates after Strong Surge. WDC Forms Bullish Pennant after Breakout. Plus ANF, ATVI, WIN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The technical picture for Dow is improving as the 50-day simple moving average crossed above the 200-day simple moving average. Note that the 50-day SMA has not been above the 200-day SMA since August. Also notice that the senior average is trading at its highest level since late July. Click... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ETF AND S&P EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF CHALLENGE 200-DAY SMAS... Link for todays video. With the late December surge and Tuesdays gaps, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) are both challenging their 200-day moving averages. These two ETFs are... READ MORE
Stocks surged on the open, but did not follow through on these opening gains. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held near their opening levels throughout the day, but the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) sold off... READ MORE
Apollo (APOL) opened strong and moved lower to trace out a bearish engulfing during the day on Tuesday. It is interesting that APOL is not moving higher with the market and that this bearish candlestick pattern formed at resistance. Follow through below Tuesday's low would confirm the pattern.... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS FROM OCTOBER PEAK ... One of the contributing factors behind today's jump in global stocks and commodities is the drop in the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) gapping lower today and threatening short-term support at its December low. That... READ MORE
It is a short, but packed week for the market with several key economic reports on deck. We have ISM Manufacturing and FOMC minutes on Tuesday, Factory Orders and Auto/Truck Sales on Wednesday, ISM Services and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the big Employment Report on Friday. The first... READ MORE
ARO Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. SLB Firms at Support Zone. STX Challenges Wedge Trendline. Plus A, ALTR, CAT, ESRX, MGM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
With a surge in late December, the Dow Transports is once again challenging resistance from the October highs. Notice that the Average failed at this level in early December. The Dow Industrials is also hitting resistance near the October high. Breakouts in both would be bullish according to Dow Theory.... READ MORE
IWM AND MDY CHALLENGE NECKLINE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Going into 2012, some of the major index ETFs are at important make-or-break levels. These major index ETFs include the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA), S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and... READ MORE
With a couple of upgrades, the indicator summary moved from -2 to +1 this week. The total has been waffling around the zero level for a few weeks now, which reflects a divided the market. The average Nasdaq stock is relatively weak, but the average NYSE stock is relatively strong.... READ MORE
Stocks continued their short-term uptrends with further strength on Tuesday and then fell sharply on Wednesday. This decline was not enough to reverse the short-term uptrend. With a modest bounce on Thursday, the major index ETFs established short-term support levels to watch going forward. On the S&P 500... READ MORE
After surging in October, the Energy SPDR (XLE) moved into a sideways pattern with a lower high and a higher low. In short, the noose is tightening as a triangle consolidation takes shape. Watch resistance from the early December high and support from the mid December low for the next... READ MORE