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HOW TO BLEND DAILY AND WEEKLY SIGNALS -- STOCK WINNERS AND LOSERS -- WATCHING % OF STOCKS ABOVE 50-WEEK MA FOR CLUES -- PRECIOUS METAL SUPPORT LEVELS -- TREASURIES RALLY -- S&P 500 SUPPORT LEVELS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHICH IS BETTER?... One of our readers asked whether it's better to use daily or weekly signals on price charts. The answer depends on the time horizon for your trading decisions. If you're a relatively inactive investor, who only makes decisions at important turning points, weekly...
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A Bollinger Band Contraction for Intel
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Bollinger Bands have been contracting as Intel (INTC) consolidates over the last few weeks. The theory behind Bollinger Bands is that volatility contractions often give way to volatility expansions. Look for a range break to trigger the next directional signal.
Click this chart for details....
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A Post-Fed Blip in the Uptrend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Bulk of the Evidence Remains Bullish
-A Blip in the Uptrend
-Playing Short-term Pullbacks
-Big Picture Review
-Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator Lags
-Volatility Indices Testing Lows
-Dollar Gets Oversold Bounce
-Crude Breaks Support
-Gold Slips as Dollar Bounces
-Bonds Firm as Stocks Fall
-Breakouts Not Holding (ERTS and AZO)
-Click...
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STOCKS FALLS AS DOLLAR BOUNCES - HOMEBUILDERS WEIGH ON STOCK MARKET - FINANCE SECTOR IS STILL THE OVERALL LEADER - RELATIVE PERFORMANCE IN XLY STALLS - QQQQ AND IWM NEAR RETRACEMENTS - MEASURING RETRACEMENTS - USING RETRACEMENT CLUSTERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR BOUNCES AS STOCKS FALL... Video Link (click here)
After an intraday reversal and higher close on Wednesday, the Dollar followed through on Thursday with another gain. Conversely, the S&P 500 ETF followed up on Wednesdays key reversal with further losses. However, it is still too early to...
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An Outside Reversal Day for SPY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The bears were given something to chew on with an outside reversal day for SPY. First, a reversal formed when Wednesday's high was above Tuesday's high and Wednesday's close was below Tuesday's close. Second, an outside day occurred because Wednesday's...
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STOCKS FALL SHARPLY AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT - RSI BECOMES OVERBOUGHT FOR DIA - EURO MOVES WITH STOCK MARKET - OIL GETS HIT BY RISING SUPPLIES - BONDS BOUNCE AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT - TELECOM ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE - AT&T AND CENTURYTEL LEAD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS DECLINE AFTER FED STATEMENT... Video Link (click here)
As was widely expected, the Fed left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. With a target range of 0-.25%, Fed Funds are trading at record lows. Whats more, the Fed said it would keep the target rate near these record lows...
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New Highs Outpacing New Lows
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The predefined scan page provides a quick glimpse of underlying strength or weakness in the stock market. At the top of this page, new 52-week highs are comfortably outpacing new 52-week lows. Click the number (129 Nasdaq and 163 NYSE) to see a list of market leading stocks....
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MARKET VECTORS COAL ETF NEARS 52 WEEK HIGH -- COAL LEADERS ARE PEABODY AND CONSOLIDATED ENERGY -- ARCH COAL BREAKS OUT OF BASING PATTERN -- DOLLAR DROP TO NEW LOW BOOSTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET VECTORS COAL ETF NEARS 52-WEEK HIGH... Here's an energy ETF that I haven't written about before. It's the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and it's based on a group of stocks tied to the price of coal. The ETF has...
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METAL STOCKS ARE RISING ALONG WITH COMMODITIES -- STILLWATER MINING NEARS 52-WEEK HIGH ON RISING PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES -- STEEL STOCKS ALSO ON THE RISE -- AKS IS US LEADER -- CLF COMPLETES MAJOR BOTTOM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
PRECIOUS METALS GAP HIGHER ... With the U.S. Dollar falling to the lowest level in a year today, stocks and commodities are bouncing again. Precious metals are having an especially strong day. Gold, silver, and platinum have gapped higher and are challenging last week's highs as shown in...
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QQQQ Hits Prior Support Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Broken support turns into resistance. This basic tenet of technical analysis will be getting a test as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) reached broken support. For now, I would consider this "potential" resistance because the trend since March is clearly up.
Click this chart for details....
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Uptrend and Dollar Dominate Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Medium-term uptrend dominates decisions
-SPY is short-term overbought
-SPY forms bull flag on 60-minute chart
-Euro and stocks zigzag together
-Oil falls from resistance
-Bonds cue from commodities
-ATVI surges off support
-ERTS stalls at key retracement
-DYN breaks channel resistance
-HBAN battles breakout
-KEY pulls back...
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CELGENE UPGRADE SPARKS BIOTECH BUYING -- AMGEN AND GILEAD HAVE PROMISING CHART PATTERNS -- ALEXION, ILLUMINA, AND VERTEX ARE IN CHART UPTRENDS -- SOME DEFENSIVE MONEY MAY BE MOVING TO HEALTCHARE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIOTECHS ETFS HAVE STRONG DAY... On a day when most stocks and commodities pulled back a bit and the dollar bounced, healthchare was the day's top performing group. Biotechs were the main reason why. Charts 1 and 2 show Biotech iShares (IBB) and Biotech Holders (BBH) nearing the...
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XLY Becomes Overbought and Stalls
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) surged over 10% this month and then stalled with two doji at the end of last week. These candlesticks signal indecision that can foreshadow a short-term pullback. Also notice that 14-day RSI moved above 70 to become overbought for the first time since...
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As Risks Rise, Discipline and Stock Selection are Critical
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
In a perfect world, we'd all invest every dime in winning stocks each and every trading day. Unfortunately, I haven't seen that kind of trading world yet. So as we approach each day, we must assess the risks in the market and determine an appropriate trading...
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LOWER PRICES AHEAD FOR XLY?
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The insatiable need to own stocks has manifested itself in most S&P sectors, in which the Consumer Discretionary sector is doing far better than anyone can believe. Most, if not all of the clients we speak with on a daily basis do not understand why this is so;...
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FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Arthur Hill reviewed some standard intermarket relationships on Thursday. One of the best known is the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar and commodity prices. That's why a falling dollar has had a bullish impact on commodity prices since the spring. The falling dollar has also boosted...
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TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers,
We're taking a break from our on-going Technical Analysis 101 series to give you an update on the two disruptions that happened last week. I want to make sure everyone understands what happened and what we are doing to prevent it from happening again....
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Breadth Remains Bullish
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a surge over the last two weeks, the AD Line and AD Volume Line for the NYSE hit new reaction highs. The first chart shows the NYSE AD Line moving above its August highs with a sharp advance this month. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net...
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BULL MARKET RULES STILL APPLY
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
For weeks we have been looking for a correction, and a time or two we experienced some trepidation that the bull market might be over, but all the market has done is produce a series of minor pullbacks. At the present it is trying to break out of a rising...
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FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN SHARES -- IT ALSO FAVORS FOREIGN ETFS OVER UNDERLYING STOCKS -- NEXT UPSIDE TARGET FOR S&P 500 IS 1120 -- NATURAL GAS IS FIDELITY'S TOP SECTOR FUND FOR THE WEEK -- GOLD NEARS TESTS OF MARCH 2008 INTRA-DAY AT $1033
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS... Arthur Hill reviewed some standard intermarket relationships on Thursday. One of the best known is the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar and commodity prices. That's why a falling dollar has had a bullish impact on commodity prices since the spring. The...
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Precious Metals Lead Rydex Funds
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Rydex Mutual Funds Market Carpet focuses on the 17 sector funds. September is all about hard assets. The leading sector funds are precious metals, energy services, basic materials and energy. Consumer produces, utilities and healthcare show the smallest gains.
Click this chart for details....
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Wave 4 Uptrend Remains in Place
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Evidence Remains Bullish For Stocks
-Wave 4 is Still Possible (me thinks)
-Current Uptrend is Still Actual (me knows)
-Net New Highs Expand Further
-Tech Sector0 Shows Relative Weakness
-AD Lines and AD Volume Lines Hit New Highs
-Volatility Indices Hit New Reaction Lows
-Stocks: XOM, APOL, AZO
-Video Link...
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DOW THEORY SIGNAL AFFIRMED - AIRLINES POWER DOW TRANSPORTS - INTERMARKET CORRELATIONS BLUR - COMMODITIES ARE NEGATIVELY CORRELATED WITH BONDS - DBC BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE - TLT HOLDS BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIALS FORGE HIGHER HIGHS... Video Link (click here). Last week I noted that the Dow Industrials had yet to break its late August highs and that a non-confirmation could be brewing. With the advance over the last five days, chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials easily clearing...
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Lowe's is Lagging
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While the stock market moved higher the last two weeks, Lowe's (LOW) failed to break above resistance at 22 and showed relative weakness. A potentially bullish ascending triangle is taking shape, but a breakout is needed for confirmation. Conversely, a break below this week's low would...
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SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD ADVANCE - FINANCE SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH - REGIONAL BANKS AND REITS POWER FINANCE - OIL FORMS BULLISH CUP-WITH-HANDLE PATTERN - XLE AND OIH BREAK RESISTANCE - GLD CHALLENGES 2008 HIGH.
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD ADVANCE... Video Link (click here) Stocks moved sharply higher on Wednesday with a broad advance. All major index ETFs were up over 1%. All nine sectors were higher with energy and finance leading the way. The technology sector lagged with a relatively small gain on the...
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A Bullish Start on Wednesday
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A look at the Market Summary page on Wednesday, September 16th, at 11:14AM ET shows a bullish start for some key sector SPDRs. The Materials SPDR (XLB), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Financials SPDR (XLF) are all up over 1% in early trading. At the top...
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IYZ Challenges Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The iShares Telecom ETF (IYZ) is challenging neckline resistance of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders represents a big consolidation and the break to new highs is positive. However, declining volume on the Aug-Sep advance is a concern.
Click this chart for details....
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POINT & FIGURE TRENDS FOR MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL UP -- NEW BULLISH PERCENT BUY SIGNALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN IN GOLD AND ENERGY -- NEW ENERGY BUYING APPEARS TO BE COMING FROM A REBOUND IN NATURAL GAS -- NATURAL GAS STOCK LEADERS INCLUDE CHK, DVN, AND EP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
POINT & FIGURE TRENDS ARE STILL UP... It's true that the market has recovered more than 50% since March. It's also true that many indicators show overbought readings. The most important indicator of all, however, is the actual trend of prices which is still up. At...
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Moving into a Zigzag Uptrend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-SPY Zigzags After July Surge
-SPY Stochastic is Short-term Overbought
-Stocks and Dollar Do Inverse Dance
-Oil Fails to Capitalize on Dollar Weakness
-XLE and OIH Hit Resistance Zones
-XOM Forms Triangle with Relative Weakness
-Falling Agriculture Prices Could Affect ADM
-Stocks: BG, GENZ, IMN, LMT and MOS
-Click...
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PnF Objective is Bullish for Gold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Point&Figure chart for the Gold ETF (GLD) is bullish with an upside target at 105. PnF Charts at Stockcharts.com show bullish or bearish price objectives above the chart on the left. GLD broke above its prior highs and clearly shows strength.
Click this chart for details....
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SILVER STOCK BREAKOUTS -- PLATINUM BREAKS OUT AND IS BENEFITING FROM STRONGER ECONOMY -- 13 AND 34 EMA LINES ARE STILL POSITIVE FOR THE S&P 500 -- BREAKDOWN IN DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO GLOBAL STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SILVER STOCKS... Last Friday I showed several gold stocks that had achieved bullish breakouts. One of our readers asked me to show some silver stockss that had achieved bullish breakouts as well. Shown below are the top three in terms of relative strength and strong chart action. Chart 1 shows...
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FXB Gets A Momentum Surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The British Pound ETF (FXB) came across the Commodity Channel Index scan as the indicator surged above 100. While some may consider CCI overbought when above 100, it is also a show of strength when CCI moved from -100 to +100 in less than two weeks.
Click this chart for...
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Breadth & Dollar Keep Stocks in Bull Mode
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Evidence Remains Bullish For Stocks
-Weak Dollar Helps Stocks and Commodities
-Major index ETFs Hit New Reaction Highs
-Breadth Remains Bullish Overall
-Small-caps Leading Large-caps
-Nasdaq Lagging NY Composite
-Stocks: ACS, ADSK, APD, ATVI, DVN, HRB, RTN, S, VZ
-Link to today's video (click here)
-Next...
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STOCKS RALLY AS DOLLAR FALLS - NEXT SUPPORT FOR THE DOLLAR INDEX - SPY EXCEEDS AUGUST HIGHS - BONDS SURGE AND RATES FALL - XLU SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN SEPTEMBER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NEGATIVE CORRELLATION FOR STOCKS AND DOLLAR... Link for todays video.
The S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index continue to move in opposite directions. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 in red and the US Dollar Index in green. This inverse relationship started to assert itself...
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XLE Hits Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Energy SPDR (XLE) broke above wedge resistance with a big gap on Tuesday, but formed a shooting star candlestick on the day. Notice the spike and failure to hold above 54 intraday. Resistance in the 53-55 area is also confirmed by a bearish engulfing in late August.
Click...
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DOW FINISHES STRONG - IWM AND QQQQ LEAD - DOW TRANSPORTS BREAKS AUGUST HIGH - RAILS AND AIRLINES LEAD - TRUCKERS LAG - SHORT-TERM DOW THEORY NON-CONFIRMATIONS LURK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DELAYED POSTING... Wednesday's Market Message was delayed due to a website disruption on Wednesday afternoon. As noted on the status page (click here), we moved back to our old T3 circuits to get back online around 1:30AM. Further developments will be posted on the status page.
BEIGE...
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Net New Highs Stay Positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Net New Highs for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE remain positive. Net New Highs equals new 52-week highs less new 52-week lows. The last dip into negative territory occurred in early July. With Tuesday's surge, Net New Highs on the NYSE hit +151 and Net...
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Identifying the Cup with Handle Formation
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The cup with handle formation is a powerful continuation pattern. A prior uptrend must exist in order to rely on the cup with handle pattern. Below are two examples of cup with handle patterns that show the cup formation and the powerful breakout moves. In the case of ADSK, we&...
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A Cup-with-Handle for SLX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a big advance from March to June, the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) formed a classic cup-with-handle pattern. This is a bullish continuation pattern that would be confirmed with a break above rim resistance. Conversely, a break below the August lows would call for a reassessment.
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WEAK DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- RISING CHINESE SHARES HELP STABILIZE GLOBAL MARKETS -- SUMMER RALLY IS STILL INTACT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR DROPS TO YEARLY LOW... The U.S. Dollar has come under heavy selling today. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index (UUP) falling to the lowest level of the year. Although most foreign currencies are rallying, the biggest gain is being seen in the Euro. Chart 2...
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