Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger uptrends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today's... READ MORE
The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) is trading at a moment of truth as its 5-day SMA returns to the 200-day SMA. A bearish trend signal triggered in early March. Despite a strong bounce from early April to mid May, this signal remains in force because it has... READ MORE
Three sectors stand out, with one sporting a recent breakout that argues for higher prices. Today's report will highlight three criteria to define a leading uptrend. First, price should be above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the price-relative should be above its rising 200-day SMA. And finally, leaders... READ MORE
QQQ and tech ETFs are leading the surge off the April low, but there is another group leading year-to-date. Year-to-date performance is important because it includes two big events: the stock market decline from mid February to early April and the steep surge into early June. We need to combine... READ MORE
The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SPY and QQQ surged above their 200-day SMAs this week. * The signal is bullish, but prone to whipsaws. * Chartists can reduce whipsaws with smoothing and signal filters. SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SPY broke down in March, plunged into early April and surged into early May. * This V bounce is impressive, but it is not enough to reverse the March breakdown. * A significant increase in upside participation is needed to move from bear market to bull market. Stocks plunged into... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stocks are halfway after capitulation in early April and a Zweig Breadth Thrust. * SPY is still below its 200-day SMA and late March high. * Follow through is needed to trigger the medium and long term signals. The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust this week. * These signals reflect a sudden and sharp shift in participation (net advancing percent). * ZBT signals only cover the entry, which means chartists need to consider an exit strategy should it fail. The Zweig Breadth Thrust... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * A simple ranking shows leadership in alterative assets and commodities. * Stocks are not the place to be because the vast majority are below their 200-day SMAs. * Bitcoin is holding up relatively well as it sets up with a classic corrective pattern. Trading is all about the odds. Trade... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Price and breadth fell to extremes in early April as the market panicked. * These extremes produced an oversold bounce, but this is still within a bear market. * Follow through is what separates bear market bounces from bullish breadth thrusts. Panic selling and oversold extremes gave way to a... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * With fast-moving markets, this report is vulnerable to self-destruction within 5 days. * The bond vigilantes sent a message as long-term yields surged and bonds plunged. * Unless reversed, these developments are negative for stocks, especially rate sensitive stocks. In the opening scene of Mission Impossible 2, Ethan Hunt receives... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Traders may consider alternatives, such as Bitcoin, in bear markets. * Bitcoin and SPY are positively correlated long-term, but one period stands out. * Even though Bitcoin shows short-term relative strength, it is short of a relative breakout. Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Among equity ETFs, non-cyclical groups are holding up the best. * Cyclical names have the most pronounced downtrends. The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals. * Traders can also use the "setup" period to identify oversold conditions. * Nasdaq stocks were left out of the original, but there is solution. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SPY reverses uptrend with sharpest decline in over two years. * Large-caps underperform the average S&P 500 stock. * Broken support and 40-week SMA turn resistance. The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * 2025 is off to a rough start with SPY, QQQ and IWM sporting losses. * ETFs with gains are bucking the market by showing relative and absolute strength. * The Biotech ETF broke out in January and is battling its breakout zone. 2025 is off to a rough start for... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Long-term Keltner Channels are trend-following indicators that identify volatility breakouts. * The Russell 2000 ETF triggered bearish this week and reversed a 14 month uptrend. * The S&P 500 SPDR remains within an uptrend and the current pullback is an opportunity. The Russell 2000 ETF triggered a bearish... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Price represents a distillation of all news, events and rumors. * Our job is to set biases aside and focus on price action. * Chartists should focus on uptrends, relative strength and bullish setups. The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Pullbacks within uptrends provide opportunities to trade within an uptrend. * Retracements, broken resistance and support mark setup zones. * Strong breakouts should hold so we should mark re-evaluation levels accordingly. The Finance sector is leading the market with a new high this week and the Bank SPDR (KBE) is... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Chartists can use weekly charts to find strong uptrends and leaders. * We can then turn to the daily chart to find tradeable pullbacks along the way. * Oversold conditions in Percent-B also present opportunities. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been leading the market for a solid four months and... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Mag7 ETF (MAGS) is outperforming the market and in a strong uptrend. * MAGS broke out of a short-term bullish continuation pattern this week. * Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon and Meta are powering MAGS higher. The Mag7 ETF (MAGS) formed another short-term bullish continuation pattern as it worked its way... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Short-term breadth became oversold in mid December. * Stocks surged this week with mid-caps triggering a bullish breadth thrust. * A small bullish divergence preceded the breadth thrust. Mid-caps show leadership and were the first to trigger a breadth thrust. Stocks surged this week with mid-caps showing the highest participation... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * ETFs holding up during corrections often lead when the market turns up again. * Ranking performance based on year-to-date and one month Rate-of-Change. * ARTY and IHI show relative and absolute strength. The stock market is in pullback mode with the S&P 500 EW ETF down 5.15%... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 10% in 2024 - but did it the hard way. * Even when trending higher, IWM is prone to pullbacks and erratic price action. * Chartists can put this to their advantage by using %B to identify tradable pullbacks. The Russell 2000 ETF managed... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Short-term breadth becomes most oversold in a year. * Bounce ensues, but has yet to show material increase in participation. * Setting key levels to identify a robust rebound. Breadth became oversold last week and stocks rebounded this week. Is this a robust rebound or a dead cat bounce? Today&... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends, but the red flags are rising. * Housing and semis, two key cyclical groups, are in downtrends. * Interest rates are rising as the 10-yr Yield reversed a 13 month downtrend. SPY and QQQ remain in long-term uptrends, but three big negatives... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The FinTech ETF (FINX) is leading the market since September. * FINX is both strong and extended as the PPO exceeded 20%. * It is time to wait for the next setup or look within the group for setups. Chartists looking for stock setups can start with strong industry groups.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The 10-yr Treasury Yield reversed its upswing with a sharp decline. * The 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF surged and reversed its downswing. * Lower yields provided a big boost to the Home Construction ETF. The 10-yr Treasury Yield reversed its upswing with a sharp decline and the Home Construction... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Traders can improve their odds with market, sector and stock filters. * We should be in a bull market and the sector should be in an uptrend. * The stock should be in a long-term uptrend and leading. Even though trading based on chart analysis involves some discretionary decisions, chartists... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SOXX is lagging SMH as it broke the 200-day SMA and confirmed a bearish pattern. * SMH is holding up because its top component remains strong. * Nevertheless SMH is at a moment of truth ahead of a big earnings report from Nvidia. Even though the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH)... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Oversold conditions create opportunities to trade with the long-term uptrend. * Oversold conditions provide the setup, but not the signals. * Chartists need a signal because price can become oversold and remain oversold. There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Trend and momentum are proven concepts we can use to improve our edge. * Longer timeframes are better for trend-momentum * CandleGlance charts make it easy to rank and sort for momentum. There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stocks go through trending and non-trending phases. * Non-trending phases often last longer than trending phases. * CIBR recently broke out and started a new trending phase. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Over 70% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. * SPY and RSP are trading near new highs. * We see a bullish continuation pattern in a key AI stock. It is a bull market for stocks. On the chart below, the S&P 500... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for trend-following strategies. * These strategies are profitable because average profits far exceed average losses. * Chartists can reduce whipsaws by adding signal thresholds to the 5/200 day SMA cross. Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Chartists need a market timing mechanism to assess risk * Risk is above average during bear markets (preserve capital) * Risk levels are acceptable during bull markets (invest capital) Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Extended uptrends often start with a bang, a big bang. * Chartists can find big bangs by measuring price moves in ATR terms. * Paypal broke a major resistance level with a 5+ ATR advance in August. Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * A bullish trio triggers for the Home Construction ETF (ITB) in mid July. * Outsized advances and resistance breakouts often kick start uptrends. * The Trend Composite is a lagging indicator that triggers after follow through. The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Smoothing the signal thresholds help to reduce whipsaws. * A new uptrend signaled for TLT as the 5-day exceeded the 200-day by more than 3% * TLT also sports a classic breakout and continuation signal. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend... READ MORE