My weekly investment routine involves a review of key sentiment indicators every Thursday. This is mainly because the survey data I review is usually updated on Wednesday and Thursday of each week, so it's a perfect time to reflect on survey data (how investors are voting with their... READ MORE
Back in January, I shared a video with four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index. These ranged from the "very bullish" view, where the SPX would rise to 5000 and beyond to the "very bearish" view involving a retest of long-term Fibonacci levels.... READ MORE
How can we ride out this bear market? Before we can answer that question, we first have to define what qualifies as a bear market. Very often, a decline of 20% or more from the most recent high is used as a yardstick to define a bear market. That seems... READ MORE
This week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes painted the picture of a hawkish Fed committed to raising rates to curb inflation. These latest comments from the Fed helped to push the Ten-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) higher, finishing the week just above 2.7%. This... READ MORE
In a fantastic sign of the times, I find myself writing an article with a legitimate discussion as to which of these two sectors has a more attractive technical setup - Utilities or Technology. For younger investors, the idea that anything other than Technology would be leading the market is... READ MORE
In hosting The Final Bar on StockCharts TV, I get the opportunity to ask successful traders and market practitioners which charts are top of mind in their process at any given time.I've found this to be a fantastic way to track market sentiment from some of the... READ MORE
Jesse Livermore famously said, "There is a time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing." On a Fed meeting day, I often find that it's one of those "fishing" days. Plenty of speculators will try and game this meeting... READ MORE
The major equity averages finished the week in a position of weakness, with the S&P 500 index once again testing the key support level of 4200. We've talked about the 4200 level many times for the S&P 500, most recently in terms of that... READ MORE
"There is nothing more painfully bullish than a bear market rally." - Dave Keller, The Final Bar, February 24, 2022 We've been tracking the signs of distribution since November of last year. As the S&P 500 made new highs into December and January, the... READ MORE
The current chart of Walt Disney Co. (DIS) provides a perfect case study on how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used to better understand the underlying trend in a stock. Disney rallied off its March 2020 low along with most other names, but the real outperformance began in... READ MORE
The Ichimoku cloud model (often just referred to as the "cloud model") is a traditional Japanese technical indicator which actually combines three separate trend-following devices. I spent some time on Japanese trading desks earlier in my career, and was always fascinated at how much I would see candlestick... READ MORE
I recently posted a video on four potential paths for the S&P 500, from the very bullish (S&P gets over 4800 in the next six weeks) to the very bearish (S&P breaks below 4000).Today, I wanted to dig a little deeper into using... READ MORE
The Hindenburg Omen is a bit of a controversial indicator. I often get asked about it from financial media outlets, as the name itself is enough to stir up investor fear. What is this indicator, and what can it tell us about current market conditions? The Hindenburg Omen was developed... READ MORE
So far in 2022, we've seen elevated volatility, yet another test of the 50-day moving averagefor the S&P 500, and renewed strength incyclical sectors over growth. If you were looking for a nice break after the uncertainty of 2021, I'm sure you are quite... READ MORE
The week between Christmas and New Year's is a special week for me. I actually call it "Power Week", and it is basically a week-long process of taking a step back from the "flickering ticks" of day-to-day life to focus on the long-term. Part... READ MORE
Try to summarize 2021 in one word. "Rotational." "Uncertain." "Volatile." Perhaps all of the above? This year has been all about leadership rotation, with growth names, value stocks and even defensive sectors all spending some time as the strongest performers in a given month.... READ MORE
Something changed on November 5, 2021. The S&P 500 had successfully broken up through the previous resistance level around 4550; early November saw the benchmark continue higher to finally reach 2700 on November 5th. Until that first Friday in November, the S&P 500 appeared to be... READ MORE
The VIX spiked above 30 this week, making that the highest level since January 2021. But is a rapid rise in volatility necessarily bearish for stocks? In my conversation with Marc Chaikinearlier this week onThe Final Bar, we talked about the move higher in the VIX and how that relates... READ MORE
My Market Trend Modelremains positive on all three time frames, which means I focus on three main goals: identify breakout opportunities with upside potential, lean into positive trends that continue to work and, lastly, look for signs of weakness that may indicate thebull market phase is exhausted. On Friday'... READ MORE
One of the best parts of hosting The Final Bar on StockCharts TVis the opportunity to compare notes with some of the top technical analysts and traders in the markets.In my recent discussions, we've discussed new highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow... READ MORE
Investors often think of the FAANG stocks as one basket of names. Either the mega cap tech and communication trade is working, or it isn't. But, as a review of the charts will reveal, these stocks can actually be differentiated using their price and relative profiles. So which... READ MORE
The worst crime that an analyst can commit is remaining bearish in the face of a rising market. -Richard Russell The S&P 500 has now round tripped from its early September high around 4550 and the low around 4300 in early October. Will there be enough buying power... READ MORE
This has been a confusing market in so many ways. The S&P 500 moved higher for the first nine months of the year, but many stocks had a very different experience over that time frame. Leadership themes have rotated a number of times, with growth- and value-oriented sectors... READ MORE
Gold has captivated human beings for millennia, infatuated with its appearance and it scarcity. Gold has also attracted investors for its value in hedging inflation and providing a stable store of wealth during periods of uncertainty. While there are many narratives for gold related to transitory inflation, the Fed'... READ MORE
I recently gave a webcast on how to avoid one of the sneakiest and most prolific of the behavioral biases: confirmation bias. Here's how it works. Instead of gathering evidence and then making a decision, you reverse the two. You actually make your decision first and then you... READ MORE
"Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin For me, technical analysis is not about trying to predict the future. So when I'm asked to give my S&P 500 target for year-end, I try not to giggle as I answer.... READ MORE
My medium-term Market Trend Modelturned bearish in May and has remained consistently bearish ever since. The market hasn't seemed to notice and has continued to make new all-time highs in every subsequent month. So how do we reconcile these two conflicting signals, with a model turned negative and... READ MORE
I recently recorded a "Choose Your Own Adventure" style approach to Bitcoin. I laid out four different scenarios for this crypto, from the uber-bullish move to 65,000 to the ultra-bearish scenario down to 24,000. If you're interested, you can see the original video here... READ MORE
Markets in healthy uptrends, with improving bullish characteristics, see price breakouts follow through to further upside. Stocks like AAPL and AMZN and PYPL and others break above previous resistance levels and continue to push onward and ever upward. Except that was not the upside follow through scenario that the markets... READ MORE
As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have pounded away at new all-time highs basically every month in 2021, investors are left to wonder when a correction may actually be coming. We were taught that markets don't just go straight up, but instead they move... READ MORE
As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have pounded away at new all-time highs basically every month in 2021, investors are left to wonder when a correction may actually be coming. We were taught that markets don't just go straight up, but instead they move... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is going higher. If you knew nothing else about the current market environment, you would consider that to be a bullish indication. As Paul Montgomery once said, "The most bullish thing the market can do is go up." But if you look underneath... READ MORE
I have four paper charts hanging in my office. I use these as the background for most of my videos, and you can usually see one in the background when we shoot The Final Barevery afternoon. I was recently asked why these four charts were worthy of display -- and... READ MORE
In terms of key developments this week, I would argue that the ten-year Treasury yield breaking below 1.5% was perhaps the most significant. On The Final Bar this week, we've talked about the $140 level on the long bond ETF ($TLT) and how this rotation higher in... READ MORE
In John Murphy's classic text Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, he explains that one of the three basic assumptions of technical analysis is that prices move in trends.For anyone that has looked at charts for any amount of time, this seems like an obvious truism. The... READ MORE
As I go through my normal routine of analyzing hundreds of charts every day, or when I'm preparing for my daily closing bell show, I often focus on the "line in the sand" for each chart. That is, what's the point at which you... READ MORE
When a market makes a quick move lower from an established peak, then quickly rebounds back to the upside, you will hear the dreaded phrase "dead cat bounce" emerge on trading floors. What is this pattern, and what can it tell us about next steps for the S&... READ MORE
Last month, we recognized a bearish divergence on the chart of the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX). Soon after, bond prices rallied, pushing interest rates down to an ascending 50-day moving average. Now that this pullback has completed, we're seeing signs of rising rates, which has ripple effects for... READ MORE
I look at hundreds of charts every single day. Every once in a while, I come upon a chart that I feel should be in future textbooks on technical analysis. One chart that seems to provide a perfect example of best practices in price analysis and investor behavior. This week&... READ MORE
It's been a heavy earnings week, with many stocks gapping higher or lower based on investors' reactions to their quarterly results. With two particular stocks, AT&T (T) and Netflix (NFLX), this week was less about their ability to grow earnings and more about their potential... READ MORE