In early October, market trends appeared to make sense—at least, as much as could be expected in 2022. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) had just made a new 52-week low, the U.S. dollar had just achieved a new 52-week high, and the 10-Year Treasury yield had... READ MORE
I was reviewing my weekly ChartList reports this afternoon and noticed this one, showing the top performing sectors for the week. Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up on the week: Consumer Staples, Utilities and Health Care. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse on the top... READ MORE
While gold has not done much in 2022 in terms of absolute returns, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has indeed outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by about 11% year-to-date. Why has gold not done better as a safe haven? It's all about the U.S.... READ MORE
Bruce Fraser joined me on The Final Bar this week and shared a thought-provoking point & figure chart of the S&P 500 index. With the recent upswing, you can use a horizontal count to identify potential upside targets for the bear market rally. (Yes, I am still labeling... READ MORE
When someone sends me a ticker to review, the first thing I do is bring up my standard two-year daily chart on StockCharts. And the very first question I ask myself is always the same: is this chart in an accumulation phase or a distribution phase? Now that is a... READ MORE
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index opened around 3500, which is a fairly significant level. That price point represents a 50% retracement of the 2020-2022 bull market phase. Was I surprised to see a bounce off the 50% retracement level? Absolutely not. As Katie Stockton shared on The... READ MORE
OK, so we know the market is going down. And, save for a mid-summer bear market rally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been in fairly consistent downtrends. Last week, I highlighted the extreme bearish readings in the AAII Survey(it's worth noting that this weekNAAIM... READ MORE
I have very fond memories of time spent in the Fidelity Chart Room, from discussing the merits of contrary opinion with teams of financial advisors to teaching student investment clubs about the value of technical analysis. But one of my favorite "behind the scenes" moments came in 2009.... READ MORE
I was taught early on that "a rising tide lifts all boats" and that the real game as an equity investor was to get the market call right. Forget about the individual stocks and instead focus your attention on the macro call. Because most stocks just follow the... READ MORE
I find semiconductors to be an important group to watch, given that they essentially provide the "backbone" to our modern information economy. Pretty much every product we use at this point has a chip involved, so if chip makers are doing well, then I can assume the economy... READ MORE
Friday's sudden 3-4% drop felt like a wake-up call of sorts. At least it did for me, as I remained bearish through much of the recent rally phase. How could the market rally given all the macro headwinds -- inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, a hawkish Fed? Tony... READ MORE
A key breadth indicator, which has indicated every swing top thus far in 2022, generated another sell signal on Friday. By the way, in case you're wondering, today's title is a direct reference to my friend Tom Bowley's quite well-timed show on StockCharts TV,... READ MORE
Since the initial rally off the June low, we've been reinforcing the importance of upside resistance in the 4150-4200 range. This is based on an initial Fibonacci retracement off the lows, and also happens to be the peak from early June. On Wednesday, we finally closed above this... READ MORE
While the VIX is often termed the "fear gauge" because of its inverse relationship to stocks, it's really more of a measure of volatility -- implied volatility, that is, which means it's looking at the S&P 500 options market, which then "... READ MORE
If you found this article through the Saturday, August 6 ChartWatchers newsletter, please click on this link to read this week's article instead. If I had just one thing to use to understand the markets and predict what was coming next, it would be a daily chart of... READ MORE
For the last couple months, when someone would bring up some bullish argument, my response would usually be something like, "Sure, but we're still below the 50-day moving average." I've learned that this game is all about identifying a key level, price, signal, or... READ MORE
The top gainer in the S&P 500 index on Friday was Citigroup (C), up over 13% on a strong earnings report. So the chart is obviously bullish, right? Not so fast. It is very easy to get drawn into short-term signals like one-day price movements. But the trick... READ MORE
Despite the long-term macro trends of higher interest rates, higher inflation and a hawkish Fed, growth stocks have managed to log some pretty decent gains in recent weeks. I've spoken often on the importance of the FAANG stocksdue to their outsized influence on our very growth-oriented equity benchmarks.... READ MORE
Semiconductors are what I consider a "bellwether" group. These companies truly provide the backbone of the modern information economy, so, when these stocks are doing well, the economic conditions are most likely strong. The SMH is featured a number of times on my Mindful Investor Live ChartList, mainly... READ MORE
Most of my conversations this week on The Final Barwere related to the tactical upswing in risk assets this week, paired with the realities of a long-term bear market phase.At what point does the market rally enough that a short-term gain becomes more of a long-term recovery? Well, first... READ MORE
When the market is in a confirmed downtrend, which I certainly believe it is, your investor game needs to rotate from a focus on capital growth to a focus on capital preservation.As long as the trend remains negative, and the price momentum remains bearish, there is no real reason... READ MORE
One of my early mentors, Ralph Acampora, suggested that, if you want to understand the trend in the S&P 500, you simply need to look at the chart of the S&P 500.What is the trend? Are we seeing higher highs or lower lows? Where are... READ MORE
I've written that bear market rallies can be sudden, severe and seductive. The move off the lows in May certainly seems to check all three boxes!Using analysis of price action, breadth indicators and volume techniques, I'll show how the similarities between the current market upswing... READ MORE
2022 has been a clear bear market phase for risk assets, particularly the equity markets. The signs were building in January, seemed validated by a new low in February, then were absolutely confirmed with the failed breakout above 4600 in late March. Somewhere in the first three months of the... READ MORE
It is super difficult to disconnect from the emotional impact of investing. I've often spoken of the dangers of endowment bias, where we tend to hold on to a losing position despite very clear evidence that we should cut our losses.As legendary technical analyst Ralph Acampora told... READ MORE
We are now in the seasonally weakest half of the year, which is why "sell in May and go away" comments have made the annual rounds. While the Sell in May approach has not been particularly successfulin recent years, it is indeed based on the general tendency of... READ MORE
Some of my most painful experiences as an investor have come when I have been undisciplined. I would get away from my daily and weekly routines, act rashly when I noticed a compelling chart, and usually end up regretting that decision in a big way. I learned that, by going... READ MORE
My weekly investment routine involves a review of key sentiment indicators every Thursday. This is mainly because the survey data I review is usually updated on Wednesday and Thursday of each week, so it's a perfect time to reflect on survey data (how investors are voting with their... READ MORE
Back in January, I shared a video with four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index. These ranged from the "very bullish" view, where the SPX would rise to 5000 and beyond to the "very bearish" view involving a retest of long-term Fibonacci levels.... READ MORE
How can we ride out this bear market? Before we can answer that question, we first have to define what qualifies as a bear market. Very often, a decline of 20% or more from the most recent high is used as a yardstick to define a bear market. That seems... READ MORE
This week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes painted the picture of a hawkish Fed committed to raising rates to curb inflation. These latest comments from the Fed helped to push the Ten-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) higher, finishing the week just above 2.7%. This... READ MORE
In a fantastic sign of the times, I find myself writing an article with a legitimate discussion as to which of these two sectors has a more attractive technical setup - Utilities or Technology. For younger investors, the idea that anything other than Technology would be leading the market is... READ MORE
In hosting The Final Bar on StockCharts TV, I get the opportunity to ask successful traders and market practitioners which charts are top of mind in their process at any given time.I've found this to be a fantastic way to track market sentiment from some of the... READ MORE
Jesse Livermore famously said, "There is a time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing." On a Fed meeting day, I often find that it's one of those "fishing" days. Plenty of speculators will try and game this meeting... READ MORE
The major equity averages finished the week in a position of weakness, with the S&P 500 index once again testing the key support level of 4200. We've talked about the 4200 level many times for the S&P 500, most recently in terms of that... READ MORE
"There is nothing more painfully bullish than a bear market rally." - Dave Keller, The Final Bar, February 24, 2022 We've been tracking the signs of distribution since November of last year. As the S&P 500 made new highs into December and January, the... READ MORE
The current chart of Walt Disney Co. (DIS) provides a perfect case study on how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used to better understand the underlying trend in a stock. Disney rallied off its March 2020 low along with most other names, but the real outperformance began in... READ MORE
The Ichimoku cloud model (often just referred to as the "cloud model") is a traditional Japanese technical indicator which actually combines three separate trend-following devices. I spent some time on Japanese trading desks earlier in my career, and was always fascinated at how much I would see candlestick... READ MORE
I recently posted a video on four potential paths for the S&P 500, from the very bullish (S&P gets over 4800 in the next six weeks) to the very bearish (S&P breaks below 4000).Today, I wanted to dig a little deeper into using... READ MORE
The Hindenburg Omen is a bit of a controversial indicator. I often get asked about it from financial media outlets, as the name itself is enough to stir up investor fear. What is this indicator, and what can it tell us about current market conditions? The Hindenburg Omen was developed... READ MORE