The S&P Small-Cap 600 has been leading the S&P 500 since mid February as a key ratio chart hit a multi-month high last week. The main window in the chart below shows the $SML:$OEX ratio, which plots the performance of the S&P Small-Cap... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction - the Bias is Obvious // High-Low Percent Calculation // Massaging the Data with Different Indicators // Setting Bullish and Bearish Thresholds // Breaking Down the S&P 1500 for more Clues // Conclusions on this Trend Following Indicator // High-Low Percent Symbols at StockCharts //// . . . . . Introduction - the Bias is Obvious 52-week highs... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction // Picking the Market Benchmark // Advance-Decline Percent // Massaging the AD Data // Measuring Significant Shifts // Dividing, Conquering and Affirming // Conclusions AD Percent Indicators at StockCharts //// . . . . . Introduction This is the first in a multi-part series on the key breadth indicators I use to determine the broad market environment. Most readers are... READ MORE
Webinar Video for Tuesday, July 12th S&P 500 Reaches Uncharted Territory // Support and Resistance for Indexes and ETFs // Small-caps and Mid-caps Outperforming // S&P 500 Breadth Finally Confirms // Small-cap New Highs Surge // Percent above 200-day Stays Bullish // Webinar Preview //// ..... S&P 500 Reaches Uncharted Territory The... READ MORE
Quanta Services (PWR) is showing signs of a long-term trend reversal with its third resistance break this year. The weekly chart shows PWR breaking down in October 2014 and trending lower until early 2016. This downtrend showed its first sign of reversing with the February surge and breakout near 19.... READ MORE
Bullish Resolution to an Already Bullish Chart // QQQ Breaks Channel Trend Line // New Highs Surge in Nasdaq 100 // Creating an Up-Down Pair Chart // Small-caps Come Alive // Consumer Discretionary Leads all Sectors // RCD Breaks June High //// ..... Bullish Resolution to an Already Bullish Chart The stock market is up sharply over the... READ MORE
SPY Looks More Bullish than Bearish // QQQ and IWM Hold the Gaps // Measuring the Sector Balance in the S&P 500 // All Nine Sector SPDRs have Golden Crosses Working // Healthcare SPDR Clears Benchmark High // Overbought, Oversold and the Bigger Trend // Amazon and Home Depot Power MarketVectors Retail ETF // Retail... READ MORE
Verisk (VRSK) was not immune to the volatility of the last two weeks, but the stock held up well during the dip and outperformed during the bounce. First, notice that the stock ultimately held the mid May low and 200-day SMA during the late June dip. Second, notice that the... READ MORE
Still Watching the Swing within Trading Range // Mid-caps Outperform Large-caps // Small-caps Hold Support Zone // Breadth Indicators Hit New Milestones // Bonds Extend Surge as Yields Fall // Falling Yields Weigh on Finance-related Groups // Break Down Holds for Finance SPDR // Webinar Preview //// ..... Still Watching the Swing within the Range The S&P... READ MORE
The S&P 500 surged over the last four days and new highs in the S&P 500 expanded to their highest level since March 2015. The chart below shows $SPX surging around 5% in four days and new highs exceeding 80 the last two days. Even though... READ MORE
Chartists will look back at the long-term charts and try to figure out where exactly this big Brexit panic actually occurred. Was there even such an event? There is something to be said for monthly close-only charts because they filter a lot of noise, and June was definitely a month... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Testing a Basic Mean-Reversion System // Tweaking RSI for Sensitivity // Setting the Ground Rules // Mean Reversion Scan Code // Buy the Falling Knife // Buy after the Bounce // And the Best System Is.... // A Portfolio with No Exceptions // Would You have the Guts? // Further Study //// ........ Testing a Basic Mean Reverions System Today... READ MORE
S&P 500 Affirms Uptrend with Big Bounce // Short-term Smoothing Improves Returns and Reduces Drawdowns // QQQ leads Recover as IWM Forms Island Reversal // HealthCare SPDR Shows Some Resilience // EW Technology Holds May Low // Five Stocks to Watch: ORCL, CMCSA, ABBV, CERN and ZTS //// ..... S&P 500 Affirms Uptrend... READ MORE
Chartists need just two plots to find leaders and stocks in uptrends: price and the price relative. Price, of course, can be a line chart, bar chart or candlestick chart. Stocks hitting 52-week highs are in clear uptrends and often leading the market. Bristol Meyers is one such stock because... READ MORE
Oversold versus Panic OVERSOLD // IWM Holds the May Low // Housing and Retail Test Benchmark Lows // XSD Becomes Most Oversold // Revisiting the Sovereign Debt Crisis // Brexit View from Belgium //// ..... Oversold versus Panic Oversold Stocks plunged the last two days and most are short-term oversold. Not just oversold, but panic oversold. Note... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard on Friday and again early Monday, but Kroger (KR) bucked the selling pressure with a bullish engulfing on Friday and further gains early Monday. Even though the overall trend for KR remains down, a double bottom could be forming as the stock gets its second bounce... READ MORE
Flag Breakout Fails for S&P 500 // AD Percent Remains on a Bull Signal // New Lows have yet to Expand // %Above 200-day Near Bearish Signal for Nasdaq 100 // Consumer Discretionary Remains the Weakest Sector // Finance Sector Weakens Considerably //// ..... Friday's sharp decline is just a blip on the... READ MORE
.... Testing the PPO Strategy .... Beware of Survivorship Bias .... Setting the Ground Rules .... Putting Three PPOs to the Test .... Reducing Drawdowns with Trend Filters .... Boosting Returns with a Pullback Rule .... Backtesting the Trend Filters and the Dip .... Testing the Original PPO Strategy .... Final Thoughts ..... Testing the PPO Strategy Today I will... READ MORE
Keep Calm and Carry On // S&P 500 Set for Key Support Test // FTSE Gets Turned Inside Out with Volatility // Smoothing out the Volatility // French and German Markets Bear the Brunt //// ..... Keep Calm and Carry On The markets are reacting violently to the Brexit vote and one could even... READ MORE
Keep Your Eye on the Rising Channels // Small-caps and Mid-caps are Leading // Healthcare and Finance Not doing That Bad // 10-yr Yield Springs a Bear Trap // Rising Yields Could Lift Banks // What does a High Volume Spinning Top Suggest? // Five Annotated Stock Charts worth Watching //// ...... Keep Your Eye on the Rising... READ MORE
The London FTSE is still down year-to-date, but it is the best performing index in Europe for 2016. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for nine European stock indexes. The London FTSE is in the middle (light blue) and down less than 1% this year. In comparison, the Madrid IBEX... READ MORE
Thinking about Stops and Exits // Surge and Zigzag Advance // Small-caps Continue to Lead // Brexit, the FTSE and the Pound // Industrials Sector Remains Strong // Sector Table Supports Broad Market Uptrend // Index Table Remains Firmly Bullish // Webinar Preview // Scan Code for Outperformance //// ..... Thinking about Stops and Exits Before getting into some broad... READ MORE
Chartists looking for the movers and shakers of the day need look no further than the StockCharts home page. Tables for most actives and SCTRs can be found midway down on the left-hand side. These tables can be viewed by Top 10, Bottom 10, Top Up and Top Down (click... READ MORE
A sharp decline in Treasury yields is lifting the Utilities SPDR (XLU) and weighing on the Finance SPDR (XLF). First, let's look at the correlations to better understand the relationships. The chart shows the 10-yr Treasury yield in the top window and the Correlation Coefficients in the lower... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Review of the Golden Cross Tests // Testing Short-term Moving Averages // A Basic 10-50 SMA Cross // Testing the Classic 13-34 EMA Cross // Does a Trend Filter Improve Results? // Final Thoughts //// ........ Last week I tested the golden cross for five major stock indexes and optimized these two moving averages to see... READ MORE
Finance Sector Weighs on Broader Market // Using Vortex Indicators with SPY // QQQ Lags with Lower High // A Choppy Advance for IWM // 5-yr Yield hits 2016 Low // Oil Falls within Rising Channel // New High, New Low and Back Again // Large-cap Techs Weigh on XLK // Aluminum Surges to High of the Year... READ MORE
Boeing has been stuck in a trading range since late March and signs of accumulation suggest an upside breakout. On the price chart, notice that BA surged from the 102 area to 135 from mid February to mid March. The stock was certainly entitled to a consolidation after a 30+... READ MORE
A Weight of the Evidence Approach // Consumer Discretionary Remains the Weakest Link // Finance Sector Struggles // Technology Does the Splits // Staples and Utilities Lead with New Highs // Ranking the Nine Sectors // Evaluating Price Action with the Stochastic Oscillator // Webinar Preview //// ..... A Weight of the Evidence Approach I will break down the... READ MORE
Large-caps in Europe continue to underperform large-caps in the US and the EuroTop 100 ($EUR) is breaking down on the price chart. First, the price chart shows $EUR falling sharply from December to mid February and then recovering 50-61.8% of this decline with a bounce back to the 2700-2750... READ MORE
Perspective on Last Week's Failed Rally // Lower High Takes Shape for Nasdaq 100 // Russell 2000 Earned the Right to Correct // Broad Selling hits key Breadth Indicator // New Highs Actually Expanded Last Week // Plunge in Yields Shakes up the Markets // ..... Perspective on Last Week's Failed Rally Stocks... READ MORE
SystemTrader - Tweaking the Golden Cross // Testing Other Indexes // Testing the Golden Cross with Short Positions // Testing with Exponential Moving Averages // The Pitfalls of Optimization // Optimizing the Long-term Moving Average Cross // The Russell 2000 is a Different Beast // Final Thoughts //// ........ Last week I tested a trading system using the golden... READ MORE
Small and Micros Continue to Lead // Big Techs Weigh on QQQ // QQQ Extends Stall // SPY Hits a New High // IWM Leaves the others in the Dust // 4 of 5 Small-cap Sector ETFs Hit New Highs // Most New Highs since June // Stocks of Interest: TJX, FCX, GS, CVS, DIS, F, ADP,... READ MORE
The Coffee ETF (JO) is one of leading commodity ETFs this week with an 8+ percent gain in just three days. The chart shows JO trending lower from the October 2014 peak until the February 2014 trough. JO then surged with a sharp three week advance that exceeded 20 and... READ MORE
Midcaps Lead %Above 200-day EMA // High-Low Lines Continue to Rise // Healthcare and Industrials Lead New High List // Sectors Reflect Broad Market Strength // XLE and XLB Extend Breakouts // Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDRs Extend Signals // Webinar Preview //// .... Midcaps Lead %Above 200-day EMA Stock market breadth... READ MORE
Tesla was hit hard in early May, but the stock managed to reverse near the 50% retracement and a bullish wedge is taking shape near the 200-day simple moving average. The stock surged from 140 to 270 from mid February to early April. This was a 90% advance in less... READ MORE
Stocks Bounce after Weak Open // SPY Remains In Trend // IWM Continues to Lead // XLE and XLI are in the Spotlight //// .... Stocks Bounce after Weak Open By now we are all aware of the big miss in the employment report. This miss triggered strong buying pressure in Treasury bonds and Treasury... READ MORE
Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) has been underperforming SPY since February, it sports the strongest chart of the nine sector SPDRs. How can that be? XLU is the only sector to hit a 52-week high this week. The sector cannot be that weak when it is trading at a... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Crossing Over to the Dark Side! // Key Performance Metrics // Setting the Benchmark // Quantifying the Golden Cross // Risk-adjusted Returns versus Drawdowns // Winners versus Losers // Ratio Metrics // Backtesting Even Further I have scrutinized charts for years, if not decades, and now I am making a step towards quantitative analysis. The Dark... READ MORE
Small and Mid Caps Lead // SPY and QQQ Remain In Trend // IWM Leads with Higher High // Utes and Staples Lag, but don't Exactly Drag // Technology Leads New High List // HACK Challenges Prior Highs // 10-YR Treasury Yield Winds Tight // A Small Decline on High Volume // 10 Stocks with Bullish... READ MORE
Oracle broke above its 200-day moving average back in early March and then pulled back over the last ten weeks. There are signs that this pullback is ending because Aroon Up just surged above Aroon Down. Developed by Tushar Chande, Aroon means "dawn's early light" in... READ MORE